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posted 30. January 2005 01:19
Source: Journal of Theoretical Biology
Volume 232, Issue 1 , 7 January 2005, Pages 71-81
[Note: This article cited at the Santa Fe Institute. The article was available pre-publication on-line from 23 September 2004. Some ScienceDirect journals provide peer reviewed but not finalised articles in press on-line before journal publication - ISCID News Editor]
Network theory and SARS: predicting outbreak diversity
Lauren Ancel Meyersa, Babak Pourbohloul, M.E.J. Newman, Danuta M. Skowronskic, Robert C. Brunham
Extract from Abstract
Many infectious diseases spread through populations via the networks formed by physical contacts among individuals. The patterns of these contacts tend to be highly heterogeneous. Traditional “compartmental” modeling in epidemiology, however, assumes that population groups are fully mixed, that is, every individual has an equal chance of spreading the disease to every other. Applications of compartmental models to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) resulted in estimates of the fundamental quantity called the basic reproductive number R0—the number of new cases of SARS resulting from a single initial case—above one, implying that, without public health intervention, most outbreaks should spark large-scale epidemics. Here we compare these predictions to the early epidemiology of SARS...
R ead research article at ScienceDirect
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